Tomorrow, Donald Trump becomes a lame duck
Nothing lasts forever, even Donald Trump.
Tomorrow, Donald Trump will take the oath of office, and the MAGA 2.0 era will officially begin. This week, the transition really kicked into gear with the new Congress sworn in and confirmation hearings already taking place. The news cycle is speeding up to a breakneck pace once again, and while no one can predict what happens next, I think it’s safe to say we’re in for even more turbulence this time around.
Since the election, I’ve talked less about the incoming regime and more about how we can prepare ourselves and our communities for it. That was an intentional choice as we’ve all been readying ourselves for this moment. But this week we’re going to turn our attention back to the MAGA Right, and their lame-duck president Donald Trump.
As of right now, Donald Trump is constitutionally barred from running for president again. He might attempt to change that, but given his advanced age, I can’t see him spending actual political will on it. On the one hand, this frees Trump up some because he doesn’t have to worry about another election. But it also means that the battle for his MAGA successor starts now.
I’m not the only one thinking along these lines. Both E.J. Dionne and Chris Hayes have called Trump a lame-duck president as well. There’s a clear endpoint to Trump’s second time in office. This reality limits Trump’s political capital and will be limited further should voters do the usual course correction in the next midterm elections.
No one is more aware of this than Steve Bannon and Elon Musk, who are already fighting amongst themselves over the future of MAGA. They are self-appointed leaders of two competing schools of thought within MAGA: Bannon as an America-first nationalist and Musk as a neo-reactionary tech overlord. Bannon came in hot, calling Musk a racist and threatening to have him kicked out of Trump’s orbit by Inauguration Day, only to backtrack and say that wouldn’t be possible since Musk had bought his way into Trump’s inner circle.
Making them fight one another is always a good strategy, and both Musk and Bannon are egomaniacs who love attention just as much as the man they swear fealty to. Neither one of them would succeed in taking Trump on right now, but MAGA’s future is an open question. Something they both seem to realize.
Currently, Musk and Bannon are fighting for Trump’s favor, but how long before that fight spirals into a battle for coalition control? Who else will get dragged into the fray? Will Trump’s cult of followers align themselves with Musk, Bannon, or someone else entirely like Donald Jr.? These questions will become more relevant as the weeks pass and Trump’s term wanes.
Republican electeds will start to think along these lines, too. Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, barely eeked out keeping his gavel, and only with Trump’s support. The House majority is razor-thin, fragile, and already prone to in-fighting. Trump’s ability to keep them in line should start to fade after the midterms especially once GOP electeds start scheduling trips to Iowa and New Hampshire.
There’s no denying Trump 2.0 will be a brutal period for America, and strategically, we’re in a weaker position than we were eight years ago. I’m bracing myself for a smash-and-grab of Trump’s enriching himself and his benefactors at our expense and for the harm he’ll bring to marginalized communities and the vengeance he’ll go after his opponents with. But I also know that Trump’s reign of terror won’t last forever. The countdown clock starts the moment he takes the oath tomorrow.
ICYMI
This week, in lieu of the usual news articles, I wanted to highlight some of the bonus content I’ve written. The influx of paid subscribers has enabled me to produce more articles and while paid subscribers and patrons receive some content early, nothing stays behind the paywall.
If you’d like to support CARD and are in a financial position to do so, please consider becoming a paid subscriber. I also have Patreon for those who prefer a non-Substack option.
Resources: I compiled these resources for readers looking to get up to speed or refresh their memory. Helpful to bookmark and refer back to.
Reading List A selection of books that have informed my thinking over the last decade. There’s a good mix of old and new titles here.
Media outlets and Research Credible news sources and organizations that produce relevant research with frequency.
Newsletters I read a lot of newsletters, my preferred method of media consumption, and there’s a lot of wonderful content out there right now.
A call to action. Instead of looking for the helpers, we need to become the helpers for ourselves and our communities.
Some thoughts on not having all the answers or a plan of action yet. Something I know a lot of us are grappling with.
Breaking Up With Antisocial Media
A guest post from Evan Sutton, a primer for how to break up with anti-social media and build a better network on Bluesky. Feels relevant again with all the news about Meta over the past couple of weeks.
Coda
Next week, my friend Greg Greene is guest-editing CARD. I’ll be back on the following Sunday.
That’s all for this week. Stay hydrated, get plenty of rest, and take care of one another. We’ll talk again next Sunday.
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Donald Duck. I like it.
Lets give Trump a performance review in the same manner anyone working for a big organization would have to go through once a year. Find the results here: https://eawtf.substack.com/p/podcast-decoding-the-trump-presidency?r=4siq6g