Polling and the youths
Take a deep breath: Let’s talk about Biden’s latest poll numbers and why they’re not cause for panic.
We’ve reached that critical moment that happens in every American election cycle: freaking out about polls.
I hate news coverage of political polling. Mostly because it’s so easily manipulated. Polling is one of the easiest tools to spread disinformation and online toxicity that political operatives have at their disposal. The media loves to cover any and all polls, even internal polls that campaigns and outside money groups release selectively. A lot of the coverage of polls lacks context, and even when it does readers don’t always have a baseline understanding of what a poll is and isn’t. Competent political operatives know how to use these factors to their advantage for driving media narratives and public conversation, and that’s before we get into more nefarious tactics.
We saw this clearly in 2022 when the red wave never materialized, but political operatives on the Right, determined to keep up the illusion, kept flooding the field with bullshit polls. Multiple experts attempted to point this out as it was happening but the media coverage only caught up with the manipulation and reported on it after the fact. There’s no real way to know how the red wave narrative altered the perception of donors, campaigns, and voters. But it likely affected funding decisions on where to spend resources and potentially motivated some people to vote while at the same time discouraging others.
The narrative around Joe Biden’s poll numbers and approval ratings has never been great, but polling news this week has been admittedly bleak. The New York Times and Philadelphia Inquirer released a series of polls with Siena College that show Biden underwater in five battleground dates. With significant erosion of the young and non-white voters that helped Biden win in 2020. It also showed that 17% of voters blamed Biden for the end of Roe.
I’m not going to argue that the news is actually good for Joe Biden, though I tend to agree with those saying this poll shows where the Biden Campaign has an opportunity to gain ground and a path to victory. I do think we should all take the vast majority of publicly reported polling (and how it’s fed to us) with a grain of salt. It’s always worth taking a deep breath, considering the source, and internalizing that even if a poll is 100% accurate, it’s not an election result. Polls don’t determine elections. Voters do.
Still it’s not hard to buy that the Biden campaign isn’t clicking with young voters for a variety of reasons. The latest edition of the Harvard Youth Poll, a methodology I trust for actually reaching young voters more than most, shows that Biden’s lead with young voters is shrinking, and even with likely voters, he still isn’t where he’d need to be for a clean overall win. According to the Harvard poll, only 9% of young Americans believe that the country is headed in the right direction, and reproductive freedom and economic issues are among their top concerns.
The Biden campaign has a good story to tell young voters about its achievements, but I don’t think they’ve managed to tell it well and reach young voters as of yet. The war in Gaza isn’t helping here. There’s no denying that the Biden Administration is wildly out of alignment with young people regarding America’s involvement and response. They have a lot of ground to make up between now and November.
It doesn’t help that Trump and the MAGA coalition have an easier job here. Trump doesn’t need young voters to turn out for him. He needs them to become so disillusioned that they vote for a third party or don’t cast a ballot at all. They don’t need to like or trust Donald Trump, but simply believe that it doesn’t matter who wins because neither candidate cares about their priorities.
Personally, I have a lot of faith in young people and believe they’ll show up to vote again, just as they did in 2020. GenZ voters have a lot to be pissed off about, but they also have a giant megaphone and until November, they’ll be the center of the political universe. If they currently feel like the campaigns aren’t paying attention, they’re about to get as sick and tired of the campaign ads, texts, and videos as the rest of us. If you’re anxious about them turning out, now is a good time to check in with the young people in your life and start a conversation.
In the meantime, we should all take another deep breath and remember that polls aren’t votes. A lot will happen between now and November, including, potentially, the first criminal conviction of a former US president and current candidate. I can’t promise you that Joe Biden will win (though I’m still fairly bullish that he will) but I do know that Trump’s style of campaigning hasn’t worked for him since 2016, and I don’t see the MAGA coalition gaining significant numbers of new voters. At the end of the day, I’d rather be in Biden’s position than Trump’s.
ICYMI
A GOP Texas School Board Member Campaigned Against Schools Indoctrinating Kids. Then She Read the Curriculum. (Texas Tribune)
You know I love a good personal narrative; this one gives me a lot of hope.
No surprise as the anti-abortion movement has always relied on disinformation. Because once most people know their true agenda, they tend to be horrified. As these folks become more desperate, expect the lies and deception to get worse.
Trump Could Make This Viral TikToker One of the Most Powerful People in Government (Rolling Stone)
Just a friendly reminder of the caliber of people Donald Trump thinks should serve in his Administration.
Coda
No newsletter next weekend as it’s the Memorial Day holiday. I hope you’re able to rest and recharge over the long weekend. (That’s my plan anyway!) Publication will resume on Sunday, June 2. In the meantime, please enjoy this classic summer anthem.
Excellent article. Especially after just reading the Hill article on Dem senators distancing from Biden. I think being forced to vote for an old man who can't even walk is ridiculous.
I'm not sure how polls are generally conducted these days, decades ago it was almost exclusively over the phone. I know I never answer an unknown number and never engage online polls, so results from someone like me are never going to show up in polls. That said this election is important enough that we should take nothing for granted. Remember, Trump is willing to suspend the constitution and create internment camps. 🤢🤮