Was this Ad Focus Grouped?

My theory on why Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign is running such a vile campaign commercial

I can’t decide who the worst person in this story is. Is it Amy Acton’s mother, Donna Arthur, for recording this horrific ad about her own daughter, or Vivek Ramaswamy, whose campaign produced the ad and is now hitting the gas to run it on TV in Ohio? Three days later, I still don’t know the answer. But I do have a theory about why the Ramaswamy campaign is spending $4 million to run it on TV while also purposely making it difficult to find online. Let’s unpack it together.

The ad first surfaced as a leak on Social media on Monday. In the spot, Ohio Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton’s mother calls Amy a liar, claiming that Acton is lying about her opponent but also about her childhood. It’s a horrific commercial even before you know the details. What parent would record a political attack ad like that against their own child? What group would think it was a good idea to produce, much less run an ad like that? Since the initial leak had no political disclaimer, its origin was unclear.

Acton’s campaign responded with a statement from her brother, saying:

“It’s not surprising that Vivek Ramaswamy has stooped to such a despicable low as to attempt to turn the sexual abuse Amy endured at twelve years old from our birth mother’s husband into a political talking point. After he was arrested and Amy and I were removed from their custody, our birth mother stayed married to Amy’s rapist until he died. This desperate, disgusting attack reveals exactly who Vivek Ramaswamy is at his core — a pathetic excuse for a man who is willing to hurt anyone as long as it gets him what he wants.”

At first, I assumed a rogue Super PAC created the ad and that Ramaswamy would denounce it. But initially, the Ramaswamy campaign refused to confirm or deny its involvement before taking credit, and it announced the 7-figure spend by giving Axios an exclusive. Some Republicans, such as current Republican Governor Mike DeWine, had enough sense to denounce the ad and call for it to be taken off the airwaves. The National Review, a right-wing publication, also defended Acton against her mother’s claims with an article about what court records from the time showed.

But a lot of folks in Greater MAGA made a different choice, starting with Vice President and former Ohio Senator JD Vance praised the campaign for having the “audacity” to run the ad. Media Matters has compiled a list of Right-wing media figures who endorsed or praised the ad, including the Daily Wire’s Michael Knowles, who called the ad “brilliant,” Roger Stone, and Megyn Kelly, among others.

You might be wondering why on earth the Ramaswamy campaign made the ad, and how so many MAGA personalities chose to platform and amplify it. At first it makes no sense. Even if they believed Acton’s estranged mother, most of them surely realized how most Americans would be disgusted by it.

Here’s my theory: the ad is designed to appeal to MAGA die-hards rather than persuadable or even low-information voters. Because Ramaswamy is worried they won’t vote without Trump on the ballot. Given the polling and Cook Political Report's toss-up ranking, the strategy makes sense. It’s the same reason Trump has made frequent trips to Ohio this cycle.

I’d love to know how this ad performed in a focus group or message test because I suspect it performed extremely well with MAGA diehards. Estrangement is a recurring theme in MAGA online spaces. Many, if not most, of Trump’s biggest fans have been cut off by family and friends. Ostensibly over political differences, but it’s always deeper than that. QAnon, vaccinations, hateful views- things that cut deeper than which party holds majorities in Congress. Because MAGA are perpetual victims, estrangement is always everyone else’s fault. Everyone but them and their actions are to blame.

Estrangement has also become what journalist Michael Hobbes has termed a “quietly metastasizing moral panic.” There have been multiple articles in the past few years freaking out over the number of young adults going no-contact with their parents. Often told primarily by estranged relatives, including only their version of what went wrong. It’s a cultural moment that pairs well with MAGA voters’ own experiences. Rather than examining your own actions and words or holding yourself accountable in any way, you can just blame woke and socialism for why your kids won’t talk to you anymore.

It’s worth noting that while the Ramaswamy campaign clearly wants older voters in Ohio to see the ad, they also don’t want it going viral on social media outside of MAGA safe spaces. The spot isn’t on their public YouTube page. An unlisted version of the video posted by the campaign exists, but you can’t search for it.

The strategy feels desperate. Especially since the campaign had to know it would galvanize Democrats and likely turn off any persuadable voters who might still be undecided. But losing campaigns make desperate moves, and even though I understand the strategy behind it, I don’t think it’s a decision a campaign that has a clear path to victory makes.

In the meantime, if you have any information on whether the ad was focus-grouped or message-tested, or about Ramaswamy’s internal polling, I’d love to know, and my DMs are open.

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