Back when I used to run digital and organizing trainings for the New Organizing Institute, my team and I would often include a slide explaining what we called the Underpants Gnomes theory of organizing.
The South Park episode that we lovingly borrowed this concept from aired in 1998 and mocks corporate America in the dot-com bubble era. The joke still holds up in our current era of venture capital, AI, and crypto startups.
Our use of the concept originates from a frustration that my then co-worker Evan Sutton and I shared about digital campaigns we often saw at the time. The initial action was clear, as was the vision for the campaign’s end. However, what happened in the middle, specifically how we’re supposed to transition from Phase 1 to Phase 3, was often not articulated well, if at all. In our trainings, we’d always emphasize the importance of moving folks up a ladder of engagement, and to make sure that ladder wasn’t missing any rungs along the way.
I’ve been thinking about this a lot lately. Right now, we’re in a similar place with our overall organizing. Organizations and activists are clearly in the collect underpants phase of things. There are protests, trainings, community events, and sticky ideas like 3.5% and noncompliance. I also hear a lot about how we need to stop simply playing defense and instead articulate a vision for what America can become.
All of these things are crucial, and I don’t want us to stop doing any of them. But how do we get from Phase 1 to Phase 3? What does that look like? What is the goal? And what sacrifices might be necessary along the way? The more I ask these questions, the less satisfied I am with the overall conversation.
Phase 2 must be removing Trump from power. It’s a simple concept, but in this environment, it can be difficult to say out loud. The Trump regime is more powerful than it’s ever been, and it’s doing everything possible to consolidate and enshrine that power. Donald Trump has won two elections, remained in office despite two impeachment attempts, and managed to get off scot free from multiple criminal proceedings. He was reelected despite a disastrous first term and an attempted coup to remain in power. Currently, all three branches of our federal government are supporting the regime, as are several state governments. Saying the quiet part out loud makes anyone a target, and as we’ve seen countless times, the Trump Regime is coming for the opposition with all its might.
But we have to say it anyway. The goal is to remove Trump from power. An election is the easiest way to do that, but with the Trump Regime actively undermining our systems, by 2028, our elections may no longer be legitimate. We frequently discuss the 3.5% rule for non-violent protest, but we still sidestep the core issue of sustained protest movements: compelling the autocratic regime to relinquish power.
I think we also have to acknowledge that this goal won’t come easily and will require sacrifice. It means all of us stepping out of our comfort zones, taking on more risk, and understanding that failure is still a distinct possibility. We might do all the right things and still lose. I don’t say that to be a doomer, because I think this is a fight worth waging. It’s a fight we can win. But that starts with being clear about what the fight is, what the risks are, and why it’s still worth doing.
As long as the Trump Regime remains in power, the reign of terror will continue. The systems, institutions, and checks on power that we’ve relied on are dead or dying. They aren’t coming back, and we won’t be able to simply restore them the next time we manage to win an election. With each passing week, the cost of opposing Trump grows, but if we don’t defy the regime, we will eventually lose everything.
Here’s the good news: a better America is possible. And one advantage of the old system crumbling all around us is that it creates space for something new to emerge. I still believe that most people don’t want to live in a fascist hellscape, and that our numbers will continue to grow as the reality of the Trump Regime sets in for more Americans with each passing week. A brighter future begins with radical honesty about what we need to accomplish, and clear calls to action on how to get there.
ICYMI
Pentagon Plan Would Create Military ‘Reaction Force’ for Civil Unrest (Washington Post)
“The Trump administration is evaluating plans that would establish a “Domestic Civil Disturbance Quick Reaction Force” composed of hundreds of National Guard troops tasked with rapidly deploying into American cities facing protests or other unrest, according to internal Pentagon documents reviewed by The Washington Post.”
Inside the ‘Whites Only’ Community in Arkansas (Wired)
“Though the organization claims that Return to the Land is nothing more than a peaceful settlement of like-minded people, the online histories of the group’s leaders tell a different story. Members have espoused virulently racist and antisemitic views and repeatedly praised Adolf Hitler and the Nazi party. One of the leaders says he is currently under criminal investigation in Ecuador. Orwoll himself has spoken about the coming of a second Hitler and praised KKK leader David Duke. He is also closely aligned to an international network of far-right influencers, extremists, and white supremacists, including Thomas Sewell, a neo-Nazi living in Australia who was the founder of a group that influenced the Christchurch, New Zealand, shooter.”
Five Things You Need to Know about Convicted Sexual Predator Ghislaine Maxwell and Her Case – Part I (Grave Injustice)
From my Courier colleague, Lisa Graves: “Together, we’ll be covering the five things everyone should know about Maxwell and the growing controversy. Given that there’s a lot to discuss for each, we’ll be breaking this into two parts. In this newsletter, you’ll find the first three things you need to know, and, next week, we’ll discuss two more.”
Meta Appoints Anti-DEI and Anti-LGBTQ+ Conspiracy Theorist Robby Starbuck as AI Bias Advisor (Advocate)
“Robby Starbuck, a failed filmmaker turned failed congressional candidate, has been appointed as an AI bias advisor at Meta with the goal of making the company's chat bot less "woke." The appointment is part of a defamation lawsuit settlement, first obtained by the Wall Street Journal, that the company reached with Starbuck after Meta AI incorrectly stated that he was involved in the January 6 insurrection and a believer of QAnon.”
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Great article! Thanks for saying these things we have been thinking.
It definitely seems there are missing steps between "protest authoritarian takeover intermittently in modest numbers" and "live peacefully in a stable democracy with rights, healthcare and a chance at prosperity for all.". Such as
- remove power and collaborators from Trump
- remove Trump from power
- build back the democracy we thought we knew (here is a start)
- - fix Supreme Court so they cannot undo all the other steps below
- - constitutional amendments on gerrymandering, voting rights, money in elections, presidential immunity
- - laws on antitrust and monopoly, healthcare, minimum wage, equal rights for all
- - electoral college changes such as statehood for DC and PR
We all need a higher gear, especially our elected leaders.
Since I came of political age in 1968 -- the year I turned 17 -- I've always been somewhat skeptical about "our democracy" even while doing blatantly political work. At the same time, as an antiwar activist, I got to know activists a generation and two generations older, veterans of civil rights organizing, labor organizing, antiwar organizing. To this day I carry their stories and their histories with me. By the end of the '70s we were heading in the right direction on climate, civil rights, women's rights, gay rights, even some sort of economic justice . . .
Then CRASH! along came Reagan, Reaganomics, and backlash against every promising thing that happened in the '70s. Despite some undeniable bright spots, like the ACA, "we the people" never really recovered. You have to be at least 60 to have at least semi-adult memories of life before Reagan, and of the importance of sustained, focused effort. The harder it gets to make a living, the less energy is left over for activism.
The organizers and activists I learned from are mostly gone. I and my peers are, as they say, "getting up there." Unions, once key to both mobilizing people and training organizers, aren't as strong or as pervasive as they once were. As your slide suggests, it's hard to get from Phase 1 to Phase 3 without (a) strategy, and (b) leadership. So I'm encouraged by the visible protests happening around the country but at the same time I don't know anything about their underpinnings. Locally we turn out impressively for rallies and demos, but it's a very small number of people (nearly all women) doing the organizing.