Fear and Hope in Europe
Elections in the UK and France offer hope, but this is no time for complacency
I’m off this week attending Netroots Nation. On Friday, I opened the keynote program, and you can view my remarks here.
In my absence, please welcome back Dr. Joe Mulhall, director of research at HOPE not hate. Joe has written several books on postwar fascism, including Drums in the Distance: Journeys into the Global Far Right. He is also a former contributing editor of CARD. -Melissa
2024 is a year of significant elections. Across the globe, over two billion people have been or will be going to the polls for regional, national, or international elections. There is no doubt that the outcome of these elections will have a major impact on the direction of democracy, freedom, and human rights around the world.
While the global gaze will soon turn to America and the question of whether Trump will return to the White House, it is currently in Europe that elections are dominating the headlines.
In the past month, there have been the vast European Parliament elections followed by national elections in the UK and France.
Thankfully, the results have reaffirmed that the far right can be beaten at the ballot box, perhaps even offering some lessons for the forthcoming American elections. However, they also expose some worrying trends that mean now is no time for complacency when it comes to the rising far right.
European Parliamentary Elections
This series of major elections in Europe began in June when 185 million people voted in 27 member states to decide who to send to the European Parliament.
The biggest winners were the far right, which saw significant gains, taking home 150 of the 720 available seats.
However, there were glimmers of hope with the far right losing ground in Sweden, Denmark, and Finland. Also, in Hungary, Viktor Orban’s Fidesz vote share declined significantly compared to 2019, though they still topped the polls.
Worryingly though, the far-right came first in several of the most influential European nations. Perhaps the most shocking result came in France, where Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) won nearly a third of the votes. In Italy, Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy (Fdl) doubled its seats in parliament while in Austria, the far-right Freedom Party came first for the first time with 26% of the vote.
The Alternative for Germany party [AfD] came second with strong showings in the regions that head to the polls later this year for state elections, despite a varied series of scandals ranging from Russian and Chinese espionage to Nazi sympathies that have rocked the party in recent months.
Thankfully however, a strong showing by the far right doesn’t necessarily mean more impact in the European Parliament, as European politics is all about group formation, and at present there are huge divisions between the various parties and wranglings are still ongoing.
Far Right Beaten in France
The most dramatic fallout from the European elections was when President Macron responded to Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) topping the polls by calling a snap national election.
Concern turned to horror when on 1 July RN won a staggering 33% of the popular vote in the first round of the two-round election. Panic and shock spread amongst progressives across the continent at the prospect of France following Italy and Hungary with a far-right government.
However, on Sunday evening, there was a collective sigh of relief and even chortles of delight as the results of the second round of voting showed that while the far-right RN was the most popular individual party, it had been beaten into third place by the left-wing alliance called the New Popular Front which won the most seats overall and the Ensemble! alliance of President Macron in second place.
The shock result came after 217 candidates from the left alliance and the Macron camp withdrew from the race meaning that some supporters of both the left or centre in the first round pivoted to support a rival in the second with the sole purpose of keeping out the far right. This ‘popular front’ tactic that saw collaboration between non-far-right parties and tactical voting proved remarkably effective.
However, while the results are rightly being celebrated this is no time for complacency. With no party receiving an overall majority French politics will be chaotic over the coming months. While the leftist alliance and liberals collaborated during the election it seems unlikely a governing coalition will materialise meaning instability and perhaps even another election could be on the horizon.
However, most worryingly, RN are still the largest party, and when put in its historical context, this remains a terrifying outcome. In 2007 the party received just 0.08% of the second-round vote, in 2022 it took 17%, while this week it claimed 37%. Le Pen might not have won a majority, but that doesn’t mean the French far-right isn’t still on the rise.
Good News From the UK?
Just days before the second round of these historic French elections, the UK also went to the polls. In recent years, the Conservative Party has undergone a radicalisation that has notable parallels to the transformation of the US Republican Party. As the party became less popular, it shifted ever further right, especially on immigration and so-called ‘culture war’ issues.
However, after 14 years of chaotic and damaging rule, opinion polls predicted that a change of government was on the way regardless of how much the party stoked up their increasingly divisive politics.
Despite high expectations, the results were still remarkable, with the Labour Party winning 412 of the 650 available seats, giving them a huge majority of 172 seats, the largest of any party since 1997.
Tempering progressives’ celebrations on the night was the worrying rise of Nigel Farage’s far-right Reform party, which received a shocking 14.3% of the national vote and 5 seats in parliament. Nationally the party received a staggering 4.1 million votes, which is by some distance the biggest ever far-right vote at a UK General Election.
Lessons From Europe
This past month of elections in Europe offers a valuable reminder that the rise of the far right isn’t about a single election result but rather must be measured over long time periods and placed in a proper historical context.
Even though the far right remains a minority everywhere in Europe except Hungary, they have reached a size where they have a dangerous impact on the wider politics of the continent, especially on issues such as immigration, gender, and sexuality. We can’t just look at the number of seats held by the far right, we must also understand the gravitational pull they have on wider discourse.
Central here is the role of the mainstream. In a recent interview with HOPE not hate, the political scientist Cas Mudde explained “If you see authoritarian politics rising, the first one to blame isn’t the far right. The first one to blame is always the mainstream parties who have voted for it. Because in the end, without the mainstream, there is no majority for far-right politics.”
However, these elections also offer us hope. They show that there is nothing inevitable about the far right winning elections. In recent years we have seen Trump in the USA, Bolsonaro in Brazil, and Law and Justice (PiS) in Poland all lose power. Earlier this year, Indian PM Narendra Modi fell short of a majority. And now, in the UK, a radicalizing Conservative Party has lost, and in France, the far-right has been knocked into third.
These are all reminders that the far-right is rarely in a majority. That means that the only way we lose is if those of us who reject the politics of hatred and division refuse to collaborate and fight together.
Coda
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Thanks so much to Joe Mulhall for writing this week’s newsletter. I always rely on him to keep me up to speed on all things far-right across the pond, and pleased to share Joe’s knowledge with CARD readers once again.
Next week I’ll be back to it, and normal publication will resume. Talk to you next Sunday!
