Call your MAGA uncle? Maybe.

Three things to know in week three of MAGA Meltdown

We’re heading into week three of MAGA’s Epstein meltdown. The MAGA base still hasn’t come home. Trump’s repeated demands that they stop obsessing about all things Epstein have only pissed them off more. His attempt to placate them by firing Jim Comey’s daughter, AKA the U.S. Attorney who prosecuted Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell, flopped as well. Even Trump’s directive to try to have the Epstein Grand Jury evidence unsealed was met with minimal enthusiasm and skepticism. Meanwhile, there’s now a bipartisan bill moving through the House to release any files related to Epstein, and members of the GOP Caucus are desperate to leave DC rather than vote either way on the bill because it puts them in the position of pissing off either Trump or his now leaderless mob.

This week, I’d like to focus more on the MAGA mob’s mental state and its implications. Mostly because several of you have emailed me with questions. The most common question being a version of, is now the time to reach out to my relatives who are MAGA/QAnon/conspiracy obsessed, and if so, what’s the best way to engage? But readers have also expressed a general curiosity about where these folks’ heads are at.

Let’s dive in:

WTF are these folks thinking right now? Truthfully, things are still unwieldy. The Bulwark’s Will Sommer, who has covered MAGA conspiracy believers from the start, has attempted to categorize MAGA’s reaction into five main factions. Sommers’s taxonomy is a solid starting point for where MAGA influencers stand, but as I monitor the overall conversation, it’s clear that many in the MAGA base are still a mix of emotions, ranging from bewilderment to rage to despair.

To me, the response reads like feeling grief. These folks have invested so much of their lives in Donald Trump and his MAGA movement. Punishing the pedophiles that supposedly run the world was the biggest promise Trump was supposed to deliver on. The Trump Regime punted, and instead of blaming one of his underlings as usual, Trump has demanded his base stop talking about Epstein multiple times. Many of them likely realize that they no longer see Trump in the same light, and they can’t go back even if they wanted to. They’re in mourning, even if they don’t have the emotional capacity to realize it.

Young men who voted for Trump are feeling this grief profoundly. Young Men Research Initiative reports on a CNN/SRSS poll showing “that just 10 percent of men ages 35 or under are satisfied with the amount of information released on the 'Epstein files.”” YMRI also cites several examples of podcasters and influencers refusing to play along reporting that “far from obeying the President’s call to get over it, the “manosphere” and right-wing podcasters are throwing fuel on the fire.”

WTF happens next? It’s still not entirely clear to me how this evolves, and I don’t trust anyone else’s predictions at the moment either. What I can say is this isn’t going away. Democrats in Congress seem more than happy to drive the wedge as long as possible, trolling the Trump Regime with votes and in the media. The Trump Regime remains desperate to change the subject and unable to do so. Ghislaine Maxwell has also entered the chat from jail, and her family is directly appealing to Trump in an attempt to get her conviction appealed. Media outlets are digging back into Trump’s personal relationship with Epstein, and this past Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reported on the existence of a dirty note Trump wrote and illustrated for a book celebrating Epstein’s birthday.

At this point, I’m not sure MAGA can ever go back to the way it was, even though a lot of them will probably try. That doesn’t mean they’ll see the light or switch their support from Trump to Democrats. However, I think it’s likely that people will remain disillusioned with the Trump Administration and that they now have an opportunity to find other points of disagreement and disappointment. On Bluesky, journalist Lindsay Beyerstein observed that “Epstein is a MAGA-acceptable way to be mad at the God Emperor. If you're mad that you're losing your Medicaid, or that inflation is creeping up, or that immigration raids and tariffs killed your small business, that makes you a RINO or a woke. But being mad about Epstein makes you a purer MAGA.” My take is similar, but more that this Epstein debacle creates the opening for the MAGA faithful to consider what other grievances they might have with Trump.

I am, however, worried about more incidents of violence. The MAGA mob has shown their willingness to do anything for Trump, so much so that hundreds of them came to DC and breached the U.S. Capitol building in an act of insurrection. It wouldn’t surprise me if some disillusioned Trump supporters take matters into their own hands. Certainly, there are examples of this happening in the past.

How do I talk to my MAGA family and friends? Can they be deradicalized? This one is hard. I say that as someone who deals with all of this for a living, and also as someone who has family who are fully bought in on MAGA’s favorite false conspiracy theories. Generally, it’s easier to keep people from going down those rabbit holes in the first place with strategies like inoculation theory and prebunking, but even that’s a challenge. Once they’re bought into conspiracy thinking, pulling them back out can be an almost impossible task.

That said, I don’t want to discourage anyone who wants to make the attempt, especially with a loved one. My favorite resource for this is The Conspiracy Theory Handbook, authored by Stephan Lewandowsky

John Cook (Full disclosure, I’ve done some client work where we contracted with Cook.) Cook and Lewandosky suggest that when talking with conspiracy believers, it’s important to show empathy, cite trusted messengers (theirs, not yours), affirm their critical thinking, and avoid ridicule. I highly suggest reading the entire handbook before having these conversations.

If actual reporting and reality might provide some rare common ground, that could be helpful. I’ve seen MAGA folks cite reporting in Wired about someone likely cutting almost three minutes of footage from the FBI Epstein prison tape, for example. And while I’m obviously not a conspiracy believer myself, at this point, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to ask why Trump is so desperate to change the subject to anything else. If nothing else, it’s a conversation starter.

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ICYMI

At Senate Hearing, Anti-Vaxxers Seek to Capitalize on Friends in High Places (MSNBC)

Brandy Zadrozny: “For nearly a decade, anti-vaccine activists and film producers have been collecting tragic, mostly unverifiable stories from parents — accounts of deaths, injuries and autism allegedly caused by vaccines. On Tuesday, several of those activists served as witnesses inside the U.S. Senate for a hearing before the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs’ Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations.”

True North Issues New Primer on the Authoritarian Infrastructure in the U.S. (True North Research)

New and helpful resource/research from the incredible Lisa Graves and her team. This is a good one to bookmark and save.

Trad Wives, MAHA, and the Women’s Wellness Pipeline (COURIER)

I am LOVING my COURIER colleague Akilah Hughes’ podcast generally, but this episode is my current favorite.

Fire, Brimstone, and Hegseth: Idaho Christian Nationalists Establish a DC Beachhead (Talking Points Memo)

Terrifying read, especially if you haven’t followed the hotbed of Christian Nationalism that exists in Idaho.

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Coda

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Building power in a nation where our rights and freedoms have become more limited is a challenge in which many Americans are ill-prepared. This session will offer perspectives from experts on authoritarianism and American marginalized communities on how strategies and tactics need to change in the age of Trump. We will offer both practical strategies and hopeful case studies from other fights both at home and abroad.

A Leopard Ate Their Face: Rage, Psychology and the Disillusioned Trumper

When Trump voters find that he's taking their jobs, stealing their retirement, blowing up the price of eggs, and other predictable outcomes, the common refrain in the comments is "I don't feel sorry for them." But what if we are reinforcing their connection to Trump at a time when they could be ready to admit they were wrong? In this panel, we will review academic research on psychology, decultification, the power of humor, and successful campaign examples where Democrats got voters to separate affection for a GOP candidate and vote for Democrats.

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This might be the longest video I’ve ever shared, but if you’ve got the time, comedian Josh Johnson’s take on MAGA’s Epstein meltdown is well worth it. Enjoy, and we’ll talk again next Sunday!